How are we going to make products even better when we are limited by how small chips can be? Enter quantum computing, a world where endless exponential computerized improvement is the law of the day - a world inhabited by Ray Laflamme and the University of Waterloo's Institute for Quantum Computing.
Can Ray Laflamme and the University of Waterloo's
Institute for Quantum Computing (IQC) prevent Moore's
Law from collapsing upon itself?
And will that same effort prevent the world's
tech-based economy from sinking into
stagnation?
These are the issues being wrestled with as Canadian
researchers reconfigure the nature of computer
science - in part, to ensure that a hypothesis first
put forward by Intel cofounder Gordon Moore in 1965
continues to operate. Moore's Law argues that the
number of chips that can be inexpensively placed on
an integrated circuit will double every two
years.
A consequence of this multiplication of chips is that
almost everything associated with computerization -
processing speed, memory capacity and picture
resolution - has also been increasing exponentially.
This growth has translated into a 21st-century world
in which everything that is computerized can do more
and more things in a smaller and smaller space. That
means people buy new products - think cell phones,
think televisions - every year or two because these
products are both patently better and generally
cheaper. And this, of course, spurs economic
growth.
But the generally accepted analysis of the future
proposed by Moore's Law says that in a decade or so,
the law will bump up against a physical reality;
namely that you simply can't make chips any
smaller.
The result, says Laflamme, who is the director of
IQC, would be a world in which technological change
would dramatically slow down, if not halt entirely.
"Imagine that people stop building new software and
new computers. And all those new applications that
people are used to seeing, no longer happen. The
telephones that we assume are going to change for the
better every year will stop appearing," he argues.
"And then people will say, 'Why the hell am I buying
a new telephone when it just does the same things as
old one did?'"
Enter quantum computing. In the quantum world,
elemental particles - the photon, which is the basis
of light, for example - defy the classic laws of
Newtonian physics. For one thing, they can be in both
one place and another or in a combination of those
two places at the same time.
If one could use the different quantum states to
store computerized data information, the
possibilities for endless exponential improvement
would once again become the law of the day. This is
because instead of the on/off of today's chips (the 0
and 1 "bits" that are the alphabet of computer code)
one could create a mathematic formula based on the
numerous different states of existence of quantum
particles - states that are called "qubits."
The rub, says Laflamme, is that "in a traditional
parallel computer every time you add a bit, you have
just added a bit. When you add a a qubit, you double
the capacity." Thus, while the 12-atom qubits that
Laflamme and his group have built to date wouldn't
even translate into the capacities of a sophisticated
calculator, if researchers can control 40 atoms -
that is, 40 qubits - we would be talking about the
quantum equivalent of a supercomputer doing trillions
of operations simultaneously.
But getting to the nirvana of useful quantum
computing is not simple. The present technology
requires quite exact magnetic control over qubits
using superconducting material that has been cooled
to a few degrees higher than absolute zero -273 ° C.
So Laflamme thinks that, in the short term, increased
control over atoms in the quantum world could create
seminal changes in other areas, most notably
quantum-based encryption of computer messages.
That's bold, a boldness backed up by the fact that,
aided by a private donation of $46.8 million by RIM
co-founder Mike Lazaridis to IQC, Canada now has the
highest number of quantum cryptography university
researchers in the world - all of which has given
researchers a sense of not just purpose but, one
might say, of quantum destiny.
"There are lots of things we haven't done yet, but I
really think quantum computing is inevitable," says
Laflamme.
